With all the happy talk to start the season at Busch Stadium, I feel compelled to reflect on all the variables that could relegate the Cardinals to a mediocre baseball team in this epic season of faster games and more offense. Why play the designated pessimist in 2023? Because the Cardinals’ success is constructed of conscious gambles, not calculated success.

(1) Foremost is the health of the starting rotation. Led by the aging Adam Wainwright, more than half of the designated starters are physical rehabilitation projects. Wainwright might surprise us all again or his early groin pull could be a harbinger of things to come. You can’t rely on a 41-year-old body to make 200 innings, so how many can you expect? Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz are the other retreads, who have struggled to live up to expectations for the last two years.  If they produce quality starts, as they have in the past, they will be the anchors of the rotation. Otherwise it’s Mikolas, Montgomery, and a starting wannabe from the bullpen.

The next issue is (2) power at the plate. With the 2022 Most Valuable Player in Paul Goldschmidt and a reliable slugger in Nolan Arenado, you’d think the Cardinals would be set, but you can point to a full month in 2022 when each of these sluggers was flailing at the plate, and nobody knew why. That is when others have to step up, for example Wilson Contreras. But who else will fill that gap– (3) Jordan Walker with crushing expectations on his 20-year-old shoulders?  (4) Tyler O’Neill, whose build alone intimidates, but with surprising fragility? (5) Nolan Gorman, whose re-invented swing is designed to swat the armpit- high fastball–or not? The offense will depend on the young and some high-risk bodies.

Probably the most uncertain is Manager Oilver Marmol’s  (6) platoon strategy that could see every player, but Goldschmidt, Arenado and Contreras shifting around like so many chess pieces. What will Dylan Carson do, play one of three outfield positions, designated hitter or ride the bench? Who will lead off–Brendan Donovan, Tommy Edman, or Lars Nootbar?  How does it affect one of these players to be shifted from lead-off to batting eighth or ninth ? It takes a tough mentality to enter every game with a different role to play. Will the chess pieces show that versatile toughness?

Probably the flexibility of the bullpen, the varied pitches that Marmol can deploy using Drew Verhagen, Andre Pallante, Zack Thompson and Packy Naughton, is the strength of the team. Bullpen pitchers can expect to be used strategically. They can expect to come into a game to do what they do best, and they can expect to come in at any time.  This draws on the strengths of the manager as well as readiness of the pitcher, and the Cardinals have an effective game manager in Marmol.  The middle innings guys will know they are coming in a game to do what they do best.

The closers, Ryan Helsley and Giovanny Gallegos, are reliable and experienced, what you only hope for to begin a season. (7) What do the Cardinals do when one of these arms breaks down is an open question. Relievers can be over-used or subject to endurance issues. We saw what happened against the Phillies, when Helsley had trouble with his thumb.

All these gambles could pay off in 2023, and the Cardinals’ management could look like geniuses. Jack Flaherty could have the year of his life, as we all pray he does. Nolan Gorman could have a breakthrough year, rounding out the center of the line-up as a designated hitter.  Jake Woodford could mature into a number three starter with his wonder slider. And Jordan Walker could be Rookie of the Year.  The managing chess of Oliver Marmol could make him a Grand Master.

That is what I wish for the Cardinals–but they are playing the odds, and they know it.