No one wants to hear that your team is in the top third of the Major Leagues in “hard hit percentage” (39.8%), but in the bottom third in runs per game (24th, 4.13). This sounds like incredibly bad luck, but you don’t win baseball games depending on luck. You  win by increasing your odds of scoring.

The St. Louis Cardinals have taken an ultra-cautious approach to running the bases, completely contrary to what they do when they are winning. Manager Oliver Marmol’s method  is to try to steal when the team is ahead, but the team has poor chances of getting ahead when its pitching staff yields first- and second-inning runs. That also might be considered bad luck, since the staff has yielded more grounders through the middle of the infield, since the rules against the shift have been executed.

Sorry, but  in baseball you have to make your own luck. How? By taking the extra base, by sacrificing runners over, and by stealing as soon as you get on base.  Teams that wait for their hits to fall in and bounce through are not going to win consistently.  They are going to load the bases and then strike out.  Yeah, that happened on Sunday.

The Cardinals know how to pressure a defense with base-stealing and sacrificing, but they are doing it less and less.  They are waiting for the big hit. They load the bases and hope. No team should aspire to load the bases, they should aspire to score by sacrificing a runner over and hitting the sacrifice fly that drives him in.  They should aspire by trying to steal whenever they have that capability in the runner on base. They should pressure, pressure, pressure, not wait, wait, wait.

The best teams keep their opponents on edge by threatening to steal and to sacrifice whenever a runner gets on.  They force mistakes by taking chances. Sometimes they run into an out, but that is small risk compared to striking out with the bases loaded. The bases loaded favors the defense, because there are so many ways to get an out. Don’t let opponents walk you into that position.  Steal or double-steal and put runners in scoring position.

The Cardinals have surprised us all with amazing hitting, .272, sixth in the league. They have probably figured that their hitting can carry their offense, but that has not been working out.  When scoring depends on luck, you are not mounting an attack; you are waiting for a timely hit.

Wait no more, Cardinals! Run with abandon and pressure the defense. Sure, run into a few outs, but at least those outs will not be with the bases loaded.