Most of the political purists did not take last Wednesday’s Republican debate seriously. Without Donald Trump, there was a lot of talk about the elephant not in the room and possible jockeying for a Vice-presidential nomination. Vivek Ramaswamy seemed determined to out-Trump Trump, either to steal the spotlight or to set himself up as a running mate.
But if we subtract the non-appearance of the Party’s favorite, we can see some signs of hope for recovery for the Grand Old Puppet-Show. Three things happened that could change the dynamic of the Party during the protracted Primary campaign:
- The candidates talked about issues instead of personalities
- Some traditional (Reagan) Republicans rose to the occasion
- Someone dared to propose a consensus on abortion
(1) Without the overwhelming personality of the former President, the candidates were forced to address the issues: especially support for Ukraine, the threat of China, defense of Taiwan, abortion rights, climate change and energy policy, to name a few. There was a good range of opinion on foreign policy from staunch defense of Ukraine to the need for protecting the border and preparing against the threat of China. Foreign policy had a resurgence of interest.
(2) Near the center of the stage and of the political spectrum were Mike Pence and Nikki Haley, both touting their experience and positions in the moderate flank of the Party. They both showed determination to resist Russia in Ukraine and to maintain the NATO alliance against isolationists. They had contrasting positions on abortion, but represented the range of Republican positions on the issue. They agreed that the U.S. immigration policy was in shambles, taking a restrictive view that did not include building a wall. They did not appear to be playing the room so much as candidates like Ramaswamy and DeSantis, who eagerly sought applause lines. Pence and Haley looked like Reagan Republicans.
(3) Nikki Haley actually advanced a proposal on abortion that could attract the majority of voters, the fifteen-week limit. “Can’t we all agree that contraception should be available? And can’t we all agree that we are not going to put a woman in jail or give her the death penalty if she gets an abortion?” Haley said. She received plenty of pushback from the right side of the room, but her biggest foe was Mike Pence, who insisted on the six-week limit on principle. In spite of that disagreement, they sounded like real candidates addressing an issue that the Democrats would use in the national election.
The audience sounded like they were recruited from a Trump rally, giving loud boo’s and cheers to express their opinions on President Biden and the isolationist policies advanced by Ramaswamy. The entrepreneur adopted the brashness and ridiculing style of Donald Trump, basically selling his personality to an audience that craved the dominant populist who was missing that night. If we measured the candidates by the temperature in the room, Ramaswamy would come out on top of the thermometer, with the moderate Republicans Asa Hutchinson and Chris Christie in the Arctic zone.
But Pence and Haley ignored the boo’s and tried to present a coherent platform. They both discounted Trump as an unelectable candidate, risking the ire of the mercurial crowd. Because they doggedly stuck to the issues they could not get the cheers that Ramaswamy got. They came prepared to debate the issues–what a concept in the Republican Party!
The specter of Trump still hovered over the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee as candidates were challenged on the questions of supporting his candidacy and his future pardon. In this two candidates stood against the other six. Asa Hutchinson and Chris Christie distinguished themselves from the opposite flank of the stage by insisting Trump was a criminal and deserved to be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. Those were not applause lines.
But the real story was that some came to debate the issues. Hutchinson, Christie, DeSantis, Pence, Halley, Senator Tim Scott, and North Dakota Governor Burgum all articulated variations on traditional Republican positions, while Ramaswamy played the crowd. The real surprise of the debate was the semblance of an emerging Republican platform. That would not have happened if Donald Trump had attended.
Based on the reactions of the crowd, Ramaswamy won the debate as a surrogate for Donald Trump. Based on the seriousness of their arguments and their support of a potential national platform, Pence and Halley won. You could not determine that from the reactions of the crowd, but it was apparent the crowd was more in tune with the personality cult of Mr. Trump. They wanted a rally; most of the candidates wanted a debate. No one should assume that the long-term effects of debating will favor the personality of Donald Trump.