Surveying the NFL Playoff picture, it’s hard to pick against the favorites, the most dominant teams in the regular season. Arizona and Carolina have shown near invincibility, potent offenses and impenetrable defenses. The Broncos meet a banged up Steeler team, their two best players doubtful. The Patriots, well the Patriots are not a lock for anything, contrary to my last blog.

The New England Patriots are also banged up. Yes, the offensive line seems to be recovering and the defense has it first string intact for the first time in a month. But Gronkowski is officially “questionable” for Saturday, with both knee and shoulder problems. The pass-catching core– Edelman, McFell, and Martin– are each recovering from injuries. Steven Jackson and Brandon Bolden have both been stuffed at the line of scrimmage to minimize the running game. This team did not show up in December. Were they just healing or utterly ineffectual?

Combine this with Kansas City’s recent success again the Patriots, a 42-14 embarrassment in 2014, the odds are not tipping toward New England. If anyone could have the Patriots’ number it could be Andy Reid, the Chiefs’ coach, who has built his team around two strong lines, both offense and defense.

Coach Bill Belichick has probably foreseen this match-up since the end of the season, and I favor Belichick over anyone, given extra preparation time. So maybe the lame duck performance in December was really a quiet rebuilding of broken bodies, all to push the Chiefs back on their tails. And Stephen Jackson could be the new secret ground weapon, if the offensive line returns to vigor.

So I would still bet the Patriots, if I were a betting man. But I’m glad I’m not. I could lose a bundle on the most vulnerable team in the NFL Playoffs.